March may prove to be the tipping point with respect to improving economic data. Fresh off recent covid-induced lockdowns and with vaccinations rapidly rising, state and local economies, especially in the south, are beginning to more fully open. Travel is picking up (and unfortunately the infection rate is too) as the weather improves and the much anticipated pent-up demand is beginning to materialize.
While February’s 6.2% Unemployment Rate still reflected a partially paused economy, economists expect the March number to come in around 6%, reflecting the pickup in activity around the country. One of the headwinds remains expanded unemployment benefits, which are keeping a large number of lower wage earners on the sidelines. We would anticipate rising wage pressures going forward as the demand for labor rises.
On the inflation front, rising demand for goods, especially raw materials, is driving prices higher across the product spectrum. The top-line CPI number for February showed a +0.4% rise is prices (+1.7% YoY) while PPI jumped +0.5% (+2.8% YoY). A good part of the inflation surge can be traced to rising energy prices as WTI Crude is up +23% in 2021 (more on that in the Alternatives space).
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