With all due respect to the good folks at Merriam-Webster, we at Nottingham feel that it is the US Federal Reserve chair’s definition of the word transitory that carries the most weight these days. Barely a reference to inflation goes by without some Fed official using the term transitory in the next breath. A LOT is riding on the Fed’s definition of the adjective, namely the future length of this bull market, which has benefitted both bond and stock investors. Given the rise in the level of inflation that we’re currently seeing, the Fed of 20 years ago (led by legendary Chair Alan Greenspan) would surely be raising short-term interest rates to counteract the pernicious impact of such a rise in the general price level.

Today’s Fed, however, is sticking by Chair Powell’s infamous utterance of a year ago that the Fed was “not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.” This, despite May’s CPI reading showing a 5.0% rise in year over year (YoY) prices (up from April’s +4.2% YoY surge). Even the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Core Index, rose +3.1% YoY in April. Anecdotal evidence of price increases are everywhere, especially pronounced in recent Q2 earnings commentary from S&P 500 CEO’s & CFO’s. The brief table below highlights some changes from early 2020.

Larry Whistler, CFA
President

Larry joined Nottingham in 2006 and heads the Investment Policy Committee, along with portfolio and relationship management responsibilities. Prior to joining Nottingham in 2006, Larry worked as an independent RIA for two years, and before that spent a decade as a bond trader for Merrill Lynch Capital Markets in Los Angeles and New York City.

Nottingham Advisors offers both institutional and individual clients experience, sophistication, and professionalism when helping them achieve their goals. With over 40 years of serving Western New York and clients in more than 30 states, Nottingham tailors each solution to fit the specific needs of each client.

For more information about Nottingham’s offerings, visit www.nottinghamadvisors.com or call 716-633-3800.

Nottingham Advisors, LLC (“Nottingham”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Amherst, New York.  Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.  Nottingham and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon SEC registered investment advisers by those states in which Nottingham maintains clients. Nottingham may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration or notice filing requirements. For information pertaining to the registration status of Nottingham, please contact Nottingham or refer to the Investment Advisor Public Disclosure Website (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov). Any subsequent, direct communication by Nottingham with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to Nottingham’s investment advisory services.  As such nothing herein should be construed as the provision of personalized investment advice. The information contained herein is based upon certain assumptions, theories and principles that do not completely or accurately reflect your specific circumstances.  Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Adhering to the assumptions, theories and principles serving the basis for the information contained herein should not be interpreted to provide a guarantee of future performance or a guarantee of achieving overall financial objectives. As investment returns, inflation, taxes and other economic conditions vary, your actual results may vary significantly. Furthermore, this newsletter contains certain forward-looking statements that indicate future possibilities. Due to known and unknown risks, other uncertainties and factors, actual results may differ materially from the expectations portrayed in such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates.  As such, there is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this article will come to pass. This newsletter should not be construed to limit or otherwise restrict Nottingham’s investment decisions.

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